This page redirects from the streak calculator previously on http://maxgriffin.net. I've converted that website to Wordpress, which makes many tasks easier but makes inserting simple things like javascripts nearly impossible. If you are looking for the Max Griffin author website, maxgriffin.net works or you can go directly to http://new.maxgriffin.net/..
This page calculates the probability of observing a minimum of K consecutive successes in N binomial trials, where p is the probability of success.
Using the numbers already filled in below, this gives the chances of seeing at least one streak of heads of length at least six in 100 flips of a fair coin. You might see exactly one, more than one, or you might see one or more lengths of seven, or eight, or more; each are among the ways to qualify "at least one streak of at least six."
You could play with the numbers to calculate, for example, the odds of rolling doubles 20 consecutive times out of 500 rolls with fair dice by changing the parameters in the table below.
This uses an elegant recursion formula described on this website. Scroll down to the "mathematician's answer" for his derivation. Alas, I don't know his name, so I can't give him more proper credit. I inferred which pronoun to use from his photo on the above site, which shows he's male. Anyway, thanks to him and the discussion on the above for motivating this page.
Text and code copyright ©
2005, William Ray
Please send comments to Bill@WilliamRay.net
Rights for non-commercial use are freely granted provided that
this copyright notice is included.
Commercial users please contact the author at the above email address for licensing information. This software is provided "as-is" with no warranties, expressed or implied.
This program is subject to the GNU general public license as described
in
www.gnu.org/copyleft/gpl.html